There is little debate that crime is a key indicator of the health of a neighborhood, whether it be economically, or the literal health and happiness of residents. A high crime neighborhood may have poor performing schools, dilapidated buildings, and high rates of unemployment. Whereas a low crime neighborhood may have a bustling business district, excellent schools, and healthy residents.

As a city employee or potential homeowner, you may be interested in the safety of a particular neighborhood, or of the city in general. With that being said, are we able to use the last several years of crime data to detect any trends or patterns? Is past crime a predictor of future crime? This interactive data exploration will allow you to test whether or not your observations and thoughts about a particular neighborhood are correct.

Gameplay

You will receive five scenarios, each providing a random neighborhood and crime. Your task is to try and predict the number of incidences of your selected crime for the year 2014. In order to help with this, a trend line is drawn, which was calculated from crime data from 2009-2013.

In addition to the trend line, you are also provided with the regression equation, and the r2 value. A variable, in the case of this page, the year, can be plugged into the regression equation, in order to generate a predicted value. The r2, or Coefficient of Determination, indicates how well the data fits the trend line.

A set of features is randomly generated, and a plot is drawn once the run button is clicked. Historic data points are shown in gray. On the plot, click on the appropriate value in the visualization to make your guess.

Your guess will display in green, and the actual 2014 result will be shown in red. If you are close, you will be awarded points for the round, and a green rectangle will appear at the bottom of the screen. If you guess incorrectly, aside from living with the cripling shame, your progress will be noted with a red rectangle.

When finished reviewing your results, click the Next Question button, and repeat until finished.

After answering five questions, you will receive a final task, in which you use what you learned to make a prediction about crime trends in the city as a whole.
Good luck, and have fun — but not too much fun, this is a serious subject.